Data captured by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations in Dubai suggests that Houthi rebels attacks on shipping have largely ceased, the last incident recorded being an attempted attack on a ship by suspected pirates on April 15.
The Houthis claim to have attacked the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) in the Red Sea, but the US Navy doesn’t appear to have noticed.
The only safe conclusion to draw at present is that the Houthi missile and drone capability is degraded, but that a resumption of attacks on shipping could still resume.
The conventional expert wisdom is that an air campaign against the Houthis will not dent their tenacious will to fight, the Houthis being stubbornly resistant to casualties and damage inflicted.
On balance, the American airstrikes are causing neither an upsurge of support for the Houthi leadership, nor yet a revolt. Their Yemeni opponents think pressure is building on the Houthis, but that a tipping point has not yet been reached.
This appraisal appears to be shared by CENTCOM campaign planners. For the moment, strikes are focused on the Houthi leadership, missile and drone infrastructure, sources of revenue and on technical cadres.
Hence the campaign is settling in as a battle of wills, and the Houthis appear to have the weaker hand. Notwithstanding their reputation for resilience, the Houthis have in the past succumbed to pressure - but only when threatened by a loss of territory to their Yemeni opponents.
If the threat to shipping is to be definitively brought to an end, reflected in the risk assessments and responses of the maritime community, then a significant political change in Houthi thinking will still be necessary.