Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Somalia’s two proscribed terrorist organizations, al-Shabaab and Islamic State in Somalia (IS Somalia), are reportedly deepening ties, according to an analysis published by The Institute for Security Studies (ISS)
Karen Allen, the author of the analysis found that “Technology transfer between armed groups is better understood since the proliferation of improvised explosive devices following conflicts in Iraq (2002) and Afghanistan (2001-2021). Migration of foreign fighters and access to 3D printing have ramped up these groups’ ability to exploit arms trafficking channels, share knowledge, access components or inspire others”.
Karen Allen added that UN monitors describe relationship between Somalia’s two proscribed terrorist organizations, al-Shabaab and Islamic State in Somalia (IS Somalia)with and the Houthis as ‘transactional or opportunistic’ – the pair having shared interests in smuggling routes and access to revenue streams.
Al-Shabaab gets access to sophisticated arms, while the Houthis gets smuggling routes and financial opportunities
However, according the analysis, there is evidence that al-Shabaab may seek a more lethal use of drones. The UN monitors note that in meetings between the two groups in 2024, al-Shabaab’s leadership requested ‘advanced weapons and training’ from the Houthis who have demonstrated a penchant for using drones, seen during attacks on commercial ships during the Red Sea crisis that began in 2023.
Karen Allen cited Conflict Armament Research’s Head of Gulf Operations Taimur Khan who said: “Some of the Houthis’ equipment and components were traced directly to Iran, ‘and were likely mostly domestically assembled Sammad-series [unmanned aerial vehicles],’
‘The Houthis procure the internal dual-use components themselves and make the airframes domestically.’ They also use commercial off-the-shelf drones.
A Carnegie Endowment for International Peace report, which includes interviews with coastguards, claims that, ‘Somalia’s porous coastlines have become critical to ensuring that the group has access to Iranian supplies of Chinese equipment necessary for the growth of its Iranian-supported drone and missile programme.’ And Somalia’s armed groups allegedly benefit from training and more sophisticated drones.
IS Somalia is also experimenting with drones. In Puntland, where it has a foothold, the group’s first recorded drone strikes – on the Puntland Security Force – were in January. In the six months before, security officials seized five suicide drones ‘dispatched by Ansar Allah … and arrested seven individuals’ linked to Somalia’s two main extremist groups.
Furthermore, the UN monitors said that in May 2024 ‘[IS Somalia] employed unmanned aerial vehicles for reconnaissance and limited explosive deployment … It is assessed that the programme was aimed at building suicide unmanned aerial vehicles.’ This either suggests cooperation between the Houthis and Somalia’s armed groups or that they draw inspiration from each other.
Assault rifles are still the main weapon smuggled into the region, but experts say greater drone proliferation seems almost inevitable. ‘Once this technology is adopted [by] a particular terrorist group, the ideas will proliferate in the region and be picked up by other armed groups, even if there are no direct links between those groups,’ says Khan.
Closer ties with extremist groups in Somalia also mean that the Houthis – and more so Iran, which provides it with military, financial and logistical support – gains ‘strategic depth,’ says the Carnegie Endowment.
Via its Yemeni proxy, Iran can help ‘shape the maritime security architecture of the Gulf of Aden and Bab-al-Mandab Strait,’ the site of many commercial shipping attacks.
It also potentially increases threat perceptions in the region, especially in Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti and Kenya. This will force militaries to allocate more resources to air defenses, says Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Maritime Senior Researcher Timothy Walker.
There is also a psychological and diplomatic effect of more lethal technology transfer, says ISS Senior Researcher Moses Okello. He suggests the mere threat of owning lethal drones or having access to components and supply routes, may impact diplomacy such that ‘insurgents may be less willing to take part in political discussions.’
For the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, the prospect of lethal drones in the hands of al-Shabaab is alarming, Okello adds. ‘Offensive drones have not yet taken root, but al-Shabaab is said to be adapting commercial drones, adding payloads to them.’ Insurgents need only one successful drone strike to impact the conflict’s direction.
Peacekeepers know that for now, assault rifles are still the weapon of choice in Somalia. But sharing technology and expertise with a key player in Yemen’s complex proxy war could recast the conflict in the Horn of Africa and beyond.